The Short Letter is part of the new Nifty Fifty product I launched on October 28 2012. It is the exclusive platform for Lucian Miers, the Bard of the Boleyn and the UK’s most cerebral short seller to reveal what he is short of and why
Lucian and I will also record a short letter joint video once a month which will be available to watch ONLY on this site.
Lucian’s track record as a short seller over more than 20 years is pretty superb. Just occasionally he goes long and he may mention such positions from time to time. But his speciality is in identifying stocks that are up to 100% overvalued. He is aided by a great network of contacts but it is his skills as a forensic accountant that are his biggest asset. He truly is the “numbers man” in the “bear community.”
But the Nifty Fifty offers more…
In 2000 I founded t1ps.com and over 12 years had a pretty good record. But what is the record of this website since its launch in October 2012? The Nifty Fifty is NOT a tipsheet. If you want a constant diet of share t1ps produced simply because a publication promises x share tips a year go somewhere else – try t1ps.com or Red Hot Penny Shares if you wish. The pressure to deliver a tip by a certain deadline forces one to make marginal calls. I am not interested in doing that.
But for what it is worth we do track our performance on an offer to bid basis. Most tipsheets use mid to mid which is wholly unrealistic and so allows them to flatter their stated performance with illusory gains in penny shares. Our average gain as at February 14 2014 on an offer to bid basis with dividends reinvested was 20.98% per tip with an average holding period of 8.125 months. We do not shoot for the stars just look to rack up solid gains steadily.
Instead of tipping shares in the way that old style websites and tipsheets do, Steve and I have created and now track five model portfolios of 10 stocks each: Growth, Income, Gold, Recovery and Penny share. In each company a nominal £1000 is invested at the offer price and, if sold, it will be sold at the bid price.
I started with a blank canvas. Each week until I shall be introducing new stocks into each portfolio until all five are fully loaded – there is no rush but after 1 year we had served up 35 ideas. Some of the stocks I have covered before, others not. As I introduce each stock into the portfolio I shall explain what it does and why I think it will make money for the portfolio.
Upon significant news from any stock in the portfolio I shall provide a detailed commentary explaining that news and how it impacts my assessment of the value of the stock.
I reserve the right to run a 100% cash position in a given portfolio if I feel that is appropriate. Right now, for instance, the gold portfolio is 80% in cash – we see value but Steve and I are in no rush to commit.
Each portfolio will be shown on the website with live prices and an up to date valuation.
I am to serve up a diet of video interviews with the men and women who run the companies in the Nifty Fifty.
And I shall serve up a weekend editorial here, as I have done every seven days for 12 years on a previous website.
So to recap My “Nifty Fifty” is not a tipsheet. I am not offering share tips or giving investment advice in the way you might have expected. This site is not offering investment advice as you may see elsewhere. I just do not think that is an effective way of communicating ideas. Tipsheets are cheap and cheerful. The Nifty Fifty is rather more serious and offers:
* 5 model portfolios carefully assembled with the rationale behind each new entrant explained: Growth, income, gold, recovery and penny share ( by which I mean companies valued at less than £20 million).
* Detailed updates on any significant news from a portfolio member.
* A weekly short letter looking at sectors or stocks where Lucian Miers sees no value and no reason to buy. This is as much a sanity check for you, a reason to ponder if you are a current holder than anything else. But if you are into shorting this is the only way to get the best ideas first hand from a bear with a very big brain.
* A weekly editorial on wider market themes.
* CEO videos, where I hope that Nifty Fifty members will tell me what they wish to ask.
If you have questions for me, feel free to email me at any stage on tomat49@gmail.com
I hope that you enjoy reading this website as much as Steve, Lucian and I enjoy writing it.
Tom Winnifrith